Population Challenges
Future Demographics and Problems
Looking at the population pyramids above, we can see that France will be in a state of duress. In fact, two major problems will occur. One will be a too large dependency load, which will be caused by the baby boom and lack of children that the baby boom had. Another will be a declining population overall. This will be caused by the fact that the death rate is increasing while the birth rate is decreasing, the higher life expectancy, and the lack of immigration.
The dependency load will be too big for the country to handle. The elderly support will drop from 4:1 to 2:1. This means that for every senior, there will be just two adults to support him/her. All of the previously large workforce will now be dependent on the previously had children. With an elderly support ratio that low, the government will be relied on more to provide for the older citizens. This coupled with longer life expectancy means that the government has to support more people for longer!
The declining birth rate and death rate means that from 2010 to 2025, the birth rate per thousand will have gone from 805 to 751 and the death rate will have gone from 560 to 676. This lowers the growth rate from an already meager 0.5% to 0.2%. Less people will mean that the country will lose money and wont be able to keep companies running from lack of people. Eventually, France will become smaller as people will be spread so thinly. Of course, that will take many more generations to happen, assuming the immigration rate continues to decline and no one leaves France. However, a huge dependency load, and a smaller workforce could lead to a bad economy and a recession. A recession will cause people to leave the country in search of jobs and start a revolt. France could be in a state of turmoil and open to attacks made by other countries, starting a war which France would lose. This unlikely but still possible chain of events could hurt France a lot, all because of a huge dependency load and general lack of people.
The dependency load will be too big for the country to handle. The elderly support will drop from 4:1 to 2:1. This means that for every senior, there will be just two adults to support him/her. All of the previously large workforce will now be dependent on the previously had children. With an elderly support ratio that low, the government will be relied on more to provide for the older citizens. This coupled with longer life expectancy means that the government has to support more people for longer!
The declining birth rate and death rate means that from 2010 to 2025, the birth rate per thousand will have gone from 805 to 751 and the death rate will have gone from 560 to 676. This lowers the growth rate from an already meager 0.5% to 0.2%. Less people will mean that the country will lose money and wont be able to keep companies running from lack of people. Eventually, France will become smaller as people will be spread so thinly. Of course, that will take many more generations to happen, assuming the immigration rate continues to decline and no one leaves France. However, a huge dependency load, and a smaller workforce could lead to a bad economy and a recession. A recession will cause people to leave the country in search of jobs and start a revolt. France could be in a state of turmoil and open to attacks made by other countries, starting a war which France would lose. This unlikely but still possible chain of events could hurt France a lot, all because of a huge dependency load and general lack of people.
